Vinnie Politan is a former prosecutor and host of HLN's Making it in America.

Jodi Arias has told her story.  I have listened to her version and compared it to the evidence.  From this analysis I have come up with what I see as my three biggest problems with Jodi Arias’ story.

Problem #1 for me is the gun. As a general rule of thumb, I do not believe in coincidences or real bad luck.  The way I see it, those are the only two explanations left for the defense on this issue. Her grandfather’s .25-caliber gun is stolen just before Travis is shot with a .25-caliber gun. Jodi Arias was living in her grandfather’s house at the time of this alleged burglary. The gun has never been recovered because Arias got rid of it. So there is no way for ballistics to make any forensic determination here. So what does that mean? The jury can make a very reasonable inference from this evidence that Arias’ grandfather’s missing .25-caliber gun is the same one that was used to shoot Travis. If they believe that, they are also very likely to find premeditation.

Problem #2 for me is Travis’ alleged attack on Arias. She says Travis body slammed her on the bathroom tile floor and she was able to get away from him by rolling and running away. When Juan Martinez questioned her about the moment-to-moment details of this attack, the story unraveled.  She claimed to have the wind knocked out of her, but quickly modified her story and backtracked. The probability of an actual body slam and subsequent escape by Arias painted an unrealistic version of this attack. If the jury agrees with me, then there is no justification for her attack on Travis, and the self-defense defense is defeated.

Problem # 3 for me is Arias’ memory gaps.  I am not an expert in PTSD or memory, however, I do possess some level of common sense.  When a defendant can remember a strawberry frappuccino from six years ago, but can’t remember any of the circumstances that make her look bad or guilty, I am skeptical.  Selective amnesia never plays well in a courtroom, especially coming from an admitted killer.  Her lack of recall regarding the brutal stab wounds, slit throat, and cover-up speaks volumes to me.  If the jury agrees, then Jodi Arias has no chance of acquittal and will end up begging this jury to spare her life.

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