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Forget pundits! Better ways to predict election

  • Astrologers, gamblers agree: Obama will repeat
  • Several indicators vie for accurate election prediction
Don't worry about the polls and pundits. There are other ways to predict the election.

Crumb count: Ohio bakery predicts presidency

According to the crumb poll, it looks like another four years for President Obama.

Dying to know if your candidate will win the election? Then, forget about the polls and pundits. You might have better luck turning to the stars, your local costume shop or even chatting up the nearest elementary school student. We’ve compiled some of the most consistent -- albeit unconventional -- ways of predicting the election. The results? Things are looking good for President Obama.

Scholastic magazine

You may vaguely remember it from your pencil box and ruler days, but for more than 60 years the classroom magazine’s Scholastic Student Vote has accurately predicted the election outcome in every contest but two! This year, nearly 250,000 kids across the country voted and chose … Obama. And if you’re thinking maybe these kids just don’t have a clue who the heck Mitt Romney is, you’re wrong. The results were close, with 51% going to Obama and 45% favoring Romney.

Edge goes to: Obama

The Misery Index

Yes, this is a real thing, so real that it’s correctly predicted the outcome of nine out of the last 12 presidential elections. The “misery” level is calculated by combining the unemployment rate and the annual inflation rate. Apparently, Americans are less miserable than they were in 2008, which means the incumbent will win.

Edge goes to: Obama

7-Eleven coffee cups

Did you ever think a trip to your local gas station could predict the future? Apparently the power lies in your hands -- or at least in your 7-Eleven coffee cup. Coffee buyers at the chain store get a choice of a blue Obama cup or a red Romney cup. Though 15 states aren’t part of the poll, the cups have predicted the last two elections. This year, coffee drinkers are leaning toward Obama 63% to 37%, as of early October.

Edge goes to: Obama

Halloween masks

Don’t worry, we’re not about to elect Edward from “Twilight” or Katniss from “The Hunger Games.” Luckily, this poll is focused on the actual candidates. The 1,000-store chain, Spirit Halloween, has managed to accurately predict the election outcome every year since 1996. This year, trick-or-treaters favored the incumbent, buying up the masks by a 60% to 40% margin.

Edge goes to: Obama


Sports, especially football games, are one of the most popular predictors of election outcomes. In every election since 1984, when Louisiana State University has won against the University of Alabama, a Republican has won the presidential race. Though the game doesn’t always fall before the election, this year LSU lost, favoring Obama. The Washington Redskins are also a longtime predictor. When the team wins the last home game before an election the incumbent wins. It’s been right 17 elections since 1936. Last weekend they lost, giving the advantage to Romney.

Edge goes to: Obama (LSU vs. Alabama), Romney (Redskins)


A team of astrologists at, a non-partisan astrology blog, used “Zodiacal Releasing” among other techniques to predict that Obama will take the lead. Surprisingly, a crystal ball was not involved. They’re also predicting “problems or controversy with the election itself.”

Edge goes to: Obama


It may be a bad habit, but it’s apparently a pretty good indicator of election results. Online political betting site Intrade lets users put money down on who they think will win the presidency. Intrade accurately predicted the result in every state in the 2004 presidential election and all but two in the 2008 election. This year, the bets are overwhelmingly on Obama (73%).

Edge goes to: Obama

Read more: Are the stars aligned for Romney or Obama?

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