Tropical Storm Emily formed yesterday over the Caribbean, and is heading westward south of Puerto Rico right now. PR as well as the Dominican Republic are under a tropical storm warning, and the US Virgin Islands are under a watch as most of the rain and wind from the storm hits them tonight and tomorrow. Winds are currently only 40 mph, but it is expected to strengthen a bit over the next 24-36 hours over some warm water. Luckily, there are some factors working against Emily exploding into a major storm:
1) The shear she is experiencing on the northern section of the circulation. That means that every time the thunderstorms near the center start to rise, they get disrupted by the winds aloft and can’t gain much height or strength.
2) The dry air that she is rolling into. That basically helps to evaporate the clouds a little as they start to build. Tropical systems really need humid air to gain power.
3) It will take aim at Hispaniola, and should be over land for a day. Tropical storms need the warm water to keep feed in moisture and energy, and if you take that away the storm starts to die down.
If Emily can hold itself together after all this in the next 48 hours, it could gain strength and head towards the Bahamas and the SE coast of the US. Check out the path from the NHC:
The same weather pattern from Monday is in place across the continental US. Heat warnings/advisories are solid across the MW and S, and big storms are popping throughout WI, MN, SD, IA and MI. Severe storms will be back for the same spots today (OH to IL), and even more could hammer into New England. I’ll have that forecast for you. The west looks quiet, after morning clouds move away from the coast, and monsoon rain will fall in the Four Corners. Full details on the show.
Headed down to get some coffee. I miss the NJ hair-netted diner-workers that used to ask me "more cawfee doll?" about this time every morning.
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